It’s the final week of the NCAA football season—if you’re a fan of any Big Ten team, that is. And in the Big Ten, the last week of the season is reserved for the long-standing rivalry games: it’s do or die, in the eyes of your fans, today. The battles for Paul Bunyon’s ax and the Old Oaken Bucket will be waged today, along with that granddaddy of all college football rivalries, that game with no name and with no prize but pride, Ohio State-Michigan.
What’s most amazing this year is that going into week 12 of their seasons, facing their final regular season opponents, ten of the Big Ten’s eleven teams are bowl eligible, having won six or more games. Only Minnesota (today facing Wisconsin for the storied ax) is under .500 on the season, and they’re way under at 1-10. Everyone else is above, 6-5 or better, going into this last chance—even Northwestern and Indiana.
Many Big Ten fans look at this set up and lament the lack of a 12th team—ignoring the fact that the Big Ten would be increasingly misnamed—and a conference championship game. They hear the pundits on TV who seem to take seriously only the Big 12 and SEC, where the eventual champ has to not only play well in the season, but also survive one additional onslaught in a “playoff atmosphere.” And maybe the fans are right to lament; after all, the people making noise about Kansas’s performance in the Big 12 and LSU’s in the SEC are the people who voted Ohio State down to #7 after their first loss of the season in Week 11 and who have kept Michigan, tied for first in the conference, out of the BCS Top 20, while three Big 12 teams sit at #3, #4, and #5 in the BCS standings— two of these (Oklahoma and Missouri) with worse records (9-1) than Ohio State (10-1).
Yes, maybe these fans are right.
But, on the whole, I think not. It’s not the question of whom we might add. That’s almost a no-brainer. We’re a geographically focused conference, and it would be easy to stay that way: Notre Dame (1-9 this year, but how unusual is that?), West Virginia, and Rutgers—farther afield, but not really all that far from State College, PA—would all be solid choices. No, it’s not about who.
It’s about why. Why does the Big Ten need a conference championship game when the last weekend of the season is often replete with matchups with conference championship implications? The Wisconsin-Minnesota game almost always means something—one or both teams generally being in the hunt. The Purdue-Indiana game is less important—unless you’re interested in the football bragging rights in a state better known for basketball, or unless you’re an alumnus of one of the schools (Go Boilers!).
But OSU-Michigan? C’mon. How often is this game not, in effect, a conference championship game? As it is today, by the way. The winner of this game will be the outright Big Ten champion, with a 7-1 record in the conference. And it really doesn’t get much bigger than this. Going into last week, both of these Titans were undefeated in the Big Ten, and in Week 11, they both suffered upset losses.
Ohio State’s loss to Illinois, last week, was an upset that could be called “stunning,” until you stop to think that with OSU and Michigan tied at the top of the table, Illinois has quietly amassed a record that puts them one step behind the “Big Two.” Michigan’s upset by Wisconsin was of the more run-of-the-mill variety—unexpected, but not unbelievable. And following last week’s action, these four teams at the top of the Big Ten standings are all ranked in the BCS Top 25. And the Wolverines and Buckeyes will do battle today for a guaranteed trip to the 2008 Rose Bowl.
But wait, there’s more! Should OSU win this game today, there’s every chance that they’ll find their way back in to the Top 5, after #2 Oregon fell apart on Thursday night against a very weak Arizona State team. Granted, that’ll take a loss today by one of the other top teams, but that’s not unlikely—three of the top five play in the Big 12, and the Big 12 is almost as notorious as the Big Ten for beating each other up. Texas Tech’s offense could prove too much for Oklahoma to handle. Or Iowa State’s tenacity could bring down Kansas. Not to mention what Kansas State might do to Missouri. Add to all of that the fact that West Virginia is playing a ranked opponent (#22 Cincinnati), and it looks as though #1 LSU is the only team that it’s completely safe to slate for a win today.
And with regular season games still to play in the Big 12, and a conference championship game still to come, the way the schedule is shaping up, two of those Big 12 teams ranked ahead of the Buckeyes will have to lose before the end of the season. And LSU will have to play a championship game, too—they can’t just ride out the season rolling over the Mississippis of the world.
But all of this is moot if OSU doesn’t get past Michigan. A Wolverines win will send the 9-3 Maize and Blue to Passadena and a 10-2 Buckeye club to some also-ran bowl. It’s still an uphill slog for OSU to the BCS title game, and they don’t come anywhere near to completely controlling their own destiny. But in terms of the Rose Bowl and the Big Ten Championship, they do.
And here’s the last thing to consider. Regardless of the outcome in today’s game in Ann Arbor, one of these two teams will be in first place in the Big Ten and the other will be no worse than tied for second. If there were a Big Ten championship game on December 1, who would play it? Some combination of Ohio State, Michigan, and Illinois, most likely (depending on whether the Illini can defeat Northwestern today). Imagine OSU defeating Michigan today and having to face them again in two weeks for a championship game. The BCS voters didn’t like that possibility last year, when Michigan had, if not a legitimate claim, at least a legitimate argument for a #2 ranking going into the bowl season. We in the Big Ten shouldn’t like it, either. And it works the same way if you want to see the Wolverines win today: would you like to see them play the Bucks again in a fortnight? Maybe this time in Columbus? I didn’t really think so.
Big Ten Rivalry week almost always settles everything that needs settling, and the game in Ann Arbor today, and in Columbus in alternate years, almost always has championship implications. And in this year, as in so many others, it is the Big Ten Championship Game.